Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2012-13


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 Creighton 100.0%   7   27 - 7 13 - 5 27 - 7 13 - 5 +14.5      +11.5 5 +3.1 91 65.4 220 +13.1 24 +10.4 1
34 Wichita St. 89.3%   11   26 - 8 12 - 6 26 - 8 12 - 6 +11.6      +4.8 60 +6.8 26 65.4 218 +12.1 32 +9.1 2
64 Northern Iowa 0.5%   17 - 14 11 - 7 17 - 14 11 - 7 +7.7      +3.0 99 +4.7 52 60.8 295 +6.8 74 +8.1 3
65 Illinois St. 0.0%   18 - 15 8 - 10 18 - 15 8 - 10 +7.7      +5.0 58 +2.7 97 76.8 25 +4.8 98 +3.6 6
79 Evansville 0.0%   17 - 14 10 - 8 17 - 14 10 - 8 +6.0      +2.2 119 +3.8 75 66.5 195 +4.9 96 +6.8 4
96 Indiana St. 1.4%   17 - 14 9 - 9 17 - 14 9 - 9 +4.9      +0.7 155 +4.2 65 65.4 219 +6.7 75 +5.5 5
118 Drake 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 11 14 - 17 7 - 11 +3.2      +3.7 76 -0.5 185 73.3 55 +3.3 121 +2.7 9
159 Bradley 0.0%   16 - 16 7 - 11 16 - 16 7 - 11 +0.5      +0.5 162 0.0 170 68.6 142 +2.0 140 +3.1 8
161 Southern Illinois 0.0%   13 - 17 6 - 12 13 - 17 6 - 12 +0.2      +0.9 152 -0.7 187 61.6 286 +1.2 156 +1.6 10
197 Missouri St. 0.0%   9 - 22 7 - 11 9 - 22 7 - 11 -1.6      +0.4 165 -2.0 236 57.3 334 -1.7 192 +3.3 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Creighton 1.0 100.0
Wichita St. 2.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 3.0 100.0
Illinois St. 6.0 100.0
Evansville 4.0 100.0
Indiana St. 5.0 100.0
Drake 7.0 100.0
Bradley 7.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 10.0 100.0
Missouri St. 7.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Creighton 13 - 5 100.0
Wichita St. 12 - 6 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 7 100.0
Illinois St. 8 - 10 100.0
Evansville 10 - 8 100.0
Indiana St. 9 - 9 100.0
Drake 7 - 11 100.0
Bradley 7 - 11 100.0
Southern Illinois 6 - 12 100.0
Missouri St. 7 - 11 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Creighton 100.0% 100.0
Wichita St.
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Evansville
Indiana St.
Drake
Bradley
Southern Illinois
Missouri St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Creighton 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.0 0.4 5.4 19.6 41.6 25.3 6.6 1.0 0.1
Wichita St. 89.3% 0.0% 89.3% 11   0.1 0.4 3.9 11.2 24.2 34.6 15.0 0.0 10.7 89.3%
Northern Iowa 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4 0.2 99.5 0.5%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0 1.2 0.2 98.6 1.4%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Creighton 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 63.7% 27.5% 14.3% 6.5% 2.6% 1.1%
Wichita St. 89.3% 13.8% 83.4% 38.6% 14.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Northern Iowa 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 10.5 87.8 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.8 16.4 82.9 0.6
2nd Round 79.0% 1.0 21.0 55.6 23.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 37.8% 0.4 62.2 34.1 3.8
Elite Eight 18.9% 0.2 81.1 18.3 0.6
Final Four 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.0 0.1
Final Game 3.1% 0.0 97.0 3.0 0.0
Champion 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2